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+--- Thread: Economic Markers - How do YOU gauge the economy (/showthread.php?tid=1444)
Economic Markers - How do YOU gauge the economy - king1 - 07-07-2022
My goto economic marker for how well the economy is doing has always been...
Harvey Norman - interest free period duration...
When things are bad, doom and gloom all around, interest free period scoots up to 60 months
When they are all good, their interest free period is usually 18/24 months
Just wondering if anyone has any other different, slightly offbeat, indicators they watch, other than the usual media/economist statements.
RE: Economic Markers - How do YOU gauge the economy - harm_less - 07-07-2022
ANZ Bank's Truckometer index is a fairly accurate measure of business activity which correlates to the GDP well even in the turbulence resulting from the 2020 COVID lockdowns (and trade rebounds).
A less fact based but more localised indicator is the amount of shoppers present in your local CBD or shopping mall, and more especially how many of them are carrying shop issued carry bags indicating that they're actually buying stuff. The amount of retail premises that have To Let signs on them is also an undeniable red flag.
RE: Economic Markers - How do YOU gauge the economy - king1 - 11-02-2023
A client told me this week that he uses fast food outlets as his economic barometer - when times are good the drive thrus are busy all weekend
RE: Economic Markers - How do YOU gauge the economy - Oh_hunnihunni - 12-02-2023
Mine is much closer to home. My bi weekly grocery budget - currently up by nearly $30, and my power bill, up by $25...
My base income has not matched those increases.
RE: Economic Markers - How do YOU gauge the economy - SueDonim - 12-02-2023
I think anything that indicates shopping for non-essentials. Locally, yes, queues at the fast food outlets. They seem to be doing well at the moment.
Too many To Lets can be a sign of downturn, or just a sign that people are driving to the malls or shopping online instead. I don't see the shopping mall foot traffic because I don't go there myself. I do shop online a lot now but do sometimes look at the emporium-type shops, of which there is a glut. Without them there would be more To Lets I'm sure.
When we have to drive through the Auckland motorway I sometimes count the number of new number plates as they go past us in the other lanes (don't worry - I'm not driving!). Last year November was down from May.
RE: Economic Markers - How do YOU gauge the economy - Zurdo - 12-02-2023
Cars for me too, not so much new ones, but are they changing cars, and to what. And in my game, are they looking after them, or deferring any maintenance not urgent....cheapest tyre we can get etc.