High chance of some auroras tonight

[harm_less]

I've found this website to be accurate in predicting aurora australis in the short term. A rise in the Kp number and negative Bz averages is what we're after.

Thanks I will check that out.
Apparently the Kp number is not so significant for aurora in the southern hemisphere for whatever reason, but is still a good indicator. 

Just been on spaceweather.com and it appears to have been downgraded, but there might still be a chance. My friend in Bluff says the sky has had a bit of a pinkish hue to it, so might still be visible. 


"SOLAR RADIATION STORM WATCH--CANCELED: Departing sunspot AR3615 erupted on March 30th (2116 UT), producing an M9.4-class solar flare only percentage points below category X. At first it seemed that the explosion would cause a solar radiation storm. AR3615 is magnetically well-connected to Earth via the Parker Spiral. Debris from the blast should have spiraled back to our planet. However, that didn't happen, so the radiation storm watch is canceled."

We used that website as a guide when there was activity last winter. Unfortunately the vantage point I attempted at North Egmont visitors' centre wasn't as good as I had hoped with too much high vegetation blocking our view to the south and we weren't prepared for a night walk further up the mountain. There were aurora photos taken from the Stratford area that same night so we would have been on the money if we'd been in the right spot.

The Kp and Bz values are only ~15 minutes out and change quickly so good for either watching a trend developing or making a move at short notice to gain a vantage point but not so much making long term plans for an evening's viewing.