I have been watching the earthquake situation around Christchurch since we had the big shakes more than 10 years ago:
http://www.canterbury.quakelive.co.nz/
http://www.canterbury.quakelive.co.nz/
It's not the least charm of a theory that it is refutable. The hundred-times-refuted theory of "free will" owes its persistence to this charm alone; some one is always appearing who feels himself strong enough to refute it - Friedrich Nietzsche