Covid Experts

[king1]

Modeling is as reliable as the assumptions you build into them, which is to say that they are essentially pure guesswork.  I do modelling (of the financial variety) as part of my work and a small tweak to the inputs/assumptions can make a huge difference to the resulting predictions.  Which is great when you need the modelling to arrive at a specific answer, but makes them nest to useless as a genuine predictive tool.

Almost all of the Covid related modelling (cases, deaths, hospitalisations, ICU utilisation etc.) has proven to have been wildly overblown.  All of the NZ government's go-to modelers seem to be associated with/use the work of Imperial College London/Neil Ferguson, who has an abysmal track record of predicting or modeling pandemic outcomes.

on the side of caution works well for me...