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"small tactical nukes"
#1
If Putin is stupid enough to use them on Ukraine, that would either mean the end of Russia as we know it, or possibly WW3.
I dont know what he refers to as "small" nukes, but is probably something close in power to a 25 kiloton Hiroshima bomb.
That would still be devastating and would force NATO to intervene like they said would happen should nukes be used by Russia.
I dont know if it would mean NATO sends nukes back in return, but I think that would be a last resort effort.
Either way, things are not looking good for putin, despite mobilization.
Ukraine is still continuing to push back russians with their counteroffensive, and are moving ever closer to Kherson. Also they are making good progress in the north east.
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#2
I think that the more he jumps up & down chest thumping frantically, the more likely that one of his rivals - or allies for that matter - might just take him out of the picture in one way or another.

I doubt that 'small tactical nukes' exist.
in order to be old & wise, you must first be young & stupid. (I'm still working on that.)
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#3
Vlad has been waiting for quite some time to test his concept of de-escalation...

https://thebulletin.org/2014/03/why-russ...scalation/
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#4
https://theconversation.com/what-are-tac...ine-191167

Quoting the above, tactical nukes vary from "fractions of 1 kiloton to about 50 kilotons" (rather unhelpfully vague really). Hiroshima was 15 kilotons and Nagasaki was 25; the largest non-nuclear bomb that the US has dropped (the MOAB or "Mother Of All Bombs) was "only" 0.011 kilotons.

I don't think even Putin will resort to Hiroshima/Nagasaki strength weapons, even if those do technically now fall into the "tactical" category. My guess is that they'd be somewhere in the "bigger than a MOAB, but less than 1Kt" range, but perhaps that is trying to apply some of my rationality to Putin's irrationality. If he does start nuking Ukraine, I still don't think NATO can retaliate with their own nukes. I'm guessing they'll just immediately go all out, dropping every conventional bomb they have on every Russian military targets they can find.

The problem with nuclear weapons from a tactical standpoint, is that they're most effective as a WW2-style "obliterate a whole city" option. That style of warfare has fortunately gone out of fashion, which is why I can't ever see NATO using that tactic ever again. I think that Russia would have to start successfully indiscriminately bombing Western cities before NATO started doing the same to Russian cities.
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#5
The world is still dealing with the aftermath of the French nuclear tests in Mururoa.


https://www.rnz.co.nz/international/paci...at-mururoa
"In 1962, the agency responsible for nuclear testing, Direction des Centres d'Experimentation Nucleaires (DIRCEN), oversaw the construction of observation posts, support bases, and other infrastructure for the programme, ahead of the first detonation in 1966 - a plutonium fission bomb code named Aldebaran, which was dropped from a helium balloon.

From that day, France would conduct regular tests on the atoll, where some of the explosions were 200 times the strength of the bombs dropped by the United States on the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945.

But Mr Sage said the programme and its intentions was shrouded in secrecy, and little information was provided about the possible effects of radiation to the thousands of people who worked there, often with little more protection than shorts and t-shirts, on boats as little as 15 kilometres away from the test site. The main island, Tahiti, more than 1,000km away, is also thought to have experienced radiological impacts.
After only a few years, the tests grew more controversial. The United States, Britain and the Soviet Union had abandoned nuclear testing in 1963, but the French pushed on until the mid-1970s, when it moved to regular underground testing on the fragile atolls.

This was to the ire of environmental groups, and the atolls became the scene of regular protest flotillas. In 1973, the New Zealand government deployed two naval frigates to the site in protest.

For years, the French Defence Ministry insisted that the tests caused no environmental damage and that the health of workers was not put at risk. But Richard Tuheiava, a member of the French Polynesian Assembly, said the effects were clear.

"The fact is since the nuclear testing, most of the diseases are cancer and leukaemia. Most of the diseases are a result of the nuclear testing," he said. Scientific studies have backed this claim, suggesting heightened rates of cancer in those exposed to radiation.

The environmental impact, too, appears to have been worse than previously conceded by France. The soil around the atoll remains highly radioactive, and there are fears that the atolls have been weakened by the blasts and could collapse, triggering a tidal wave.

Despite the mounting evidence, the French government denied all suggestion that the nuclear tests were harmful to health until 2009, when it introduced a programme to give compensation to victims of radiation exposure. Of more than 1,000 claims, only 19 people have ever received compensation."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/m...arch-finds

"Groundbreaking new analysis could allow more than 100,000 people to claim compensation

Jon Henley
@jonhenley
Tue 9 Mar 2021 06.00 GMT
France has consistently underestimated the devastating impact of its nuclear tests in French Polynesia in the 1960s and 70s, according to groundbreaking new research that could allow more than 100,000 people to claim compensation.

“The state has tried hard to bury the toxic heritage of these tests,” said Geoffrey Livolsi, Disclose’s editor-in-chief. “This is the first truly independent scientific attempt to measure the scale of the damage and to acknowledge the thousands of victims of France’s nuclear experiment in the Pacific.”

"
in order to be old & wise, you must first be young & stupid. (I'm still working on that.)
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#6
(05-10-2022, 01:48 PM)Lilith7 Wrote: I think that the more he jumps up & down chest thumping frantically, the more likely that one of his rivals - or allies for that matter - might just take him out of the picture in one way or another.

I doubt that 'small tactical nukes' exist.
They definitely have been a thing that was at least tested in the past, but whether or not they are held in stockpiles is anyones guess.
The US had some that were in the area of 5 kilotons or less that could be fired from a gun for example.

Im really concerned what Putin will do after the attack on the crimea bridge.
I dont even think Ukraine was responsible for it.
It appears to be close to the russian end, and Russia claim it was a truck bomb, but the footage is a bit messy, some speculate it was a ukrainian HIMARS rocket, but could also be a false flag attack from the russian side as a means to justify retaliation like we have seen with the recent missile strikes from Russia.

If he was going to use nukes, he probably would have done it by now, but im watching closely what goes on around this bridge, Ukraine have not claimed responsibility for the bridge attack (yet), but I dont think they will be complaining unless they are worried about retaliation.
I expect Ukraine would want to attack the bridge at some point, but strategically its important to strike at the right time.
I would have thought it was a bit early, but if US intel has been advising Ukraine, then perhaps they have something bigger planned. It definitely will slow down conscripts and supplies from entering Ukraine.
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#7
I am always amused when discussions around nukes come up with absolutely no mention of the fact that the only use of nukes in anger was by the USA.

Leading by example, as usual?
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