Is the French govt doomed; pension reform?

[Lilith7]

The French don't seem too happy about their govt trying to change the age for the pension - only be two years but perhaps the view is that this would be the thin edge of the wedge & once begun, it may well continue with further changes to the age.
They seem only to have elected this govt because the alternative - Marine Le Pen was a step too far.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64986741

"Faith in conventional politics and the parliamentary system is in fact at rock-bottom. How else to explain the collapse of Gaullists and Socialists, who ran France for half a century, and the rise of the far-right and far-left?

President Macron encouraged the death of the ancien régime, that old order which he exploited to pose as the lone moderate, picking sensible bits from programmes of left and right.


Meanwhile, the tenor of public debate was steadily debased.
The left tabled literally thousands of amendments to the pensions bill, making its conventional passage impossible. Opponents described as "brutal" and "inhuman" a reform which in other countries would have seemed perfectly anodyne.

One left-wing MP posed outside the Assembly with his foot on a ball painted with the head of the labour minister; fearing mob violence, a leading pro-Macron MP called on Friday for police protection for her colleagues.

With scenes of looting and urban violence, hills of rotting rubbish on the streets of Paris and other French cities, and the promise of more crippling strikes to come, this is the unedifying atmosphere as the country enters the next crucial phase in the crisis.

In practice, even the so-called "transpartisan" motion tabled by a centrist group in parliament - supposedly more liable to create a consensus between the mutually hostile far-left and far-right - would be unlikely to get the numbers.

The government hopes that reality will at some point set in, and that most people will dejectedly accept the inevitable.

Quite possibly a sacrificial victim will eventually have to made - no doubt in the form of Prime Minister Élisabeth Borne.

But for now, the mood is too ugly for that.


In the immediate term, to every petrol depot blockaded, to every bin uncollected, and to every window smashed will be joined the accompanying refrain: "Blame 49:3. Blame Macron."

[king1]

Governments don't have an unending supply of money, either the citizens contribute more money, receive less money, or have the starting age increased. I would probably suggest a reality check is required in France...

[Lilith7]

I think there are probably two France's; one well off & the other working damned hard & remaining poor, at least going by what I've read & one or two movies.
If that's so then it may be that those struggling can see that if the age is raised now, then it can continue to be raised which is likely to make their lives harder.

Perhaps the French govt should make the welfare of those people more important than it presently is.

[harm_less]

The writing is on the wall in terms of the taxation/superannuation imbalance as our the demographics of most countries changes as a result of the post-war baby boom working its way through their populations.

I heard a very enlightening presentation by Gareth Morgan almost 20 years ago on this exact topic. As the population ages tax take will fall and the percentage of those in the workforce will decrease. This will be countered in a variety of ways including raising the retirement age, moving females back into the workforce, and increasing reproduction rates. All will result in the same increase in taxable population but on different time scales. The amount of capital tied up in domestic real estate is also a contributing factor and long term value of 'macmansion' scale homes will be at risk of severe devaluation as the demand for such houses decreases.

[Oh_hunnihunni]

Exactly the conditions that bring on revolution - which is simply big change accelerated by reaching a tipping point, instead of the usual creeping change that we scarcely notice until we chance to look back.

Be interesting though if this pressure is added to other pressures, like those that are inevitable in the wake of climate change. Interesting in the sense used in the Chinese curse ' May you live in interesting times...'

Thoughts like that make me glad I am old.

[Lilith7]

Exactly the conditions that bring on revolution - which is simply big change accelerated by reaching a tipping point, instead of the usual creeping change that we scarcely notice until we chance to look back.

Be interesting though if this pressure is added to other pressures, like those that are inevitable in the wake of climate change. Interesting in the sense used in the Chinese curse ' May you live in interesting times...'

Thoughts like that make me glad I am old.

I seem to recall that the French have a bit of history in the department of revolution; their govt would do well to keep that in mind. The plain fact is their govt (& probably almost every govt) needs to come up with a fairer system for everyone.
Whether they'll do it or not is another thing.  
And yes, me too. I'm glad to be almost about to exit stage left - but I worry about our children, grandchildren & great grand children who are going to have to cope with the mess our greed has made.

The world is a weird place. And humans are crazy.

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The writing is on the wall in terms of the taxation/superannuation imbalance as our the demographics of most countries changes as a result of the post-war baby boom working its way through their populations.

I heard a very enlightening presentation by Gareth Morgan almost 20 years ago on this exact topic. As the population ages tax take will fall and the percentage of those in the workforce will decrease. This will be countered in a variety of ways including raising the retirement age, moving females back into the workforce, and increasing reproduction rates. All will result in the same increase in taxable population but on different time scales. The amount of capital tied up in domestic real estate is also a contributing factor and long term value of 'macmansion' scale homes will be at risk of severe devaluation as the demand for such houses decreases.

"moving females back into the workforce, and increasing reproduction rates"

Well - I wonder just who will bear  all that extra work & stress...??

Never mind though - there's money to be made from childcare.

We have to do better.