Japan could face a collapse of the auto industry

[nzoomed]

If they dont get their A into G and get some EV's on the market ASAP.
We may see the market being flooded with Chinese brands. We already are seeing more from China on the market.
I believe Toyota has the largest amount of corporate debt at the moment as they are rushing to switch to electric.
They have got a new CEO who appears to have scrapped their plans for Hydrogen which is a good move.

[harm_less]

The Japanese economy's heavy reliance on its auto sector and the failure of the companies in that sector to pursue, or even take seriously, the moves of the world's markets, and particularly the Chinese, towards EVs is increasingly looking like a perfect storm.

This presentation which is from the same series as the one I posted earlier in the farming category provides a wider perspective of what is in play over the coming years.

[nzoomed]

The Japanese economy's heavy reliance on its auto sector and the failure of the companies in that sector to pursue, or even take seriously, the moves of the world's markets, and particularly the Chinese, towards EVs is increasingly looking like a perfect storm.

This presentation which is from the same series as the one I posted earlier in the farming category provides a wider perspective of what is in play over the coming years.

Oh yes I think ive seen that, its quite disruptive.
I guess we all have Elon Musk to thank for spearheading this.
It might not be too late for Japan if they act now, but many companies seem to be in denial over the whole thing and appear to show little interest to innovate.
Nissan actually was in a good position early on with the leaf despite the models drawbacks, and could have introduced more EV models that were better.
Honda is the only other company with an EV model and looks like they are shifting production to China, and even then its essentially a redesigned model from their partner in China.
I think Toyota is redesigning their factorys in Japan, hence why they are in so much debt.

[harm_less]

The Japanese economy's heavy reliance on its auto sector and the failure of the companies in that sector to pursue, or even take seriously, the moves of the world's markets, and particularly the Chinese, towards EVs is increasingly looking like a perfect storm.

This presentation which is from the same series as the one I posted earlier in the farming category provides a wider perspective of what is in play over the coming years.

Oh yes I think ive seen that, its quite disruptive.
I guess we all have Elon Musk to thank for spearheading this.
It might not be too late for Japan if they act now, but many companies seem to be in denial over the whole thing and appear to show little interest to innovate.
Nissan actually was in a good position early on with the leaf despite the models drawbacks, and could have introduced more EV models that were better.
Honda is the only other company with an EV model and looks like they are shifting production to China, and even then its essentially a redesigned model from their partner in China.
I think Toyota is redesigning their factorys in Japan, hence why they are in so much debt.

The rate of change resulting from these disruptive changes in the key sectors of our economy (energy, information, food, transport and materials) is absolutely overwhelming the organisations/businesses who have previously supplied those goods and services.

Here in New Zealand the rate at which EVs and PV have been taken up has left power utilities, government regulators, primary producers, vehicle suppliers and oil companies, among others struggling to keep up. Case in point the government's recent budget announcement on funding 23 rapid charging hubs NZ wide as they have correctly identified that a lack of public EV charging is restricting EV uptake. Installing hubs of the size they are suggesting is more than just a case of choosing a piece of real estate and moving in some charging units as the rate of electricity required to charge multiple EVs at DC rates requires some pretty grunty current. In many cases the local grid just doesn't have the capacity to support such demand.

Here in New Plymouth the local Council has plans to add numerous EVs to their fleet over the coming years but the grid infrastructure to its premises is only capable of supporting a few level 2 (7kW) chargers rather than several level 3 (25kW+ DC) chargers as is required for timely daytime charging of their EVs. That grid shortfall is typical for that area of the New Plymouth CBD which includes where the existing ChargeNet 50kW public charger is sited, which incidentally recently went offline because of supply issues. My sister who nurses in Auckland advises me that a similar situation exists for the EV fleet at the hospital she works at.

Note too the clumsy approach to addressing AI control measures we're seeing lately in NZ, and further afield. That technology is moving hugely faster than TPTB can implement control over it. That situation is a cause for concern especially as we head into an election campaign.

I'm presently planning an increase in our PV capacity which I would like to add battery storage to but the idea of spending ~$20K on batteries when we have far more storage capacity in our EV batteries than any home battery could viably provide seems ridiculous. For the equivalent capacity that our Polestar has in it would cost in access of $200K. One of the major barriers to heading down the V2G path (powering our home from the car) is that our lines company seems to be years away from developing the regulatory measures or physical design parameters for V2G to be possible. Of course we are dealing with a power supply structure that sees distributed generation and EVs as a threat so any advances will be an uphill struggle.

[nzoomed]

Oh yes I think ive seen that, its quite disruptive.
I guess we all have Elon Musk to thank for spearheading this.
It might not be too late for Japan if they act now, but many companies seem to be in denial over the whole thing and appear to show little interest to innovate.
Nissan actually was in a good position early on with the leaf despite the models drawbacks, and could have introduced more EV models that were better.
Honda is the only other company with an EV model and looks like they are shifting production to China, and even then its essentially a redesigned model from their partner in China.
I think Toyota is redesigning their factorys in Japan, hence why they are in so much debt.

The rate of change resulting from these disruptive changes in the key sectors of our economy (energy, information, food, transport and materials) is absolutely overwhelming the organisations/businesses who have previously supplied those goods and services.

Here in New Zealand the rate at which EVs and PV have been taken up has left power utilities, government regulators, primary producers, vehicle suppliers and oil companies, among others struggling to keep up. Case in point the government's recent budget announcement on funding 23 rapid charging hubs NZ wide as they have correctly identified that a lack of public EV charging is restricting EV uptake. Installing hubs of the size they are suggesting is more than just a case of choosing a piece of real estate and moving in some charging units as the rate of electricity required to charge multiple EVs at DC rates requires some pretty grunty current. In many cases the local grid just doesn't have the capacity to support such demand.

Here in New Plymouth the local Council has plans to add numerous EVs to their fleet over the coming years but the grid infrastructure to its premises is only capable of supporting a few level 2 (7kW) chargers rather than several level 3 (25kW+ DC) chargers as is required for timely daytime charging of their EVs. That grid shortfall is typical for that area of the New Plymouth CBD which includes where the existing ChargeNet 50kW public charger is sited, which incidentally recently went offline because of supply issues. My sister who nurses in Auckland advises me that a similar situation exists for the EV fleet at the hospital she works at.

Note too the clumsy approach to addressing AI control measures we're seeing lately in NZ, and further afield. That technology is moving hugely faster than TPTB can implement control over it. That situation is a cause for concern especially as we head into an election campaign.

I'm presently planning an increase in our PV capacity which I would like to add battery storage to but the idea of spending ~$20K on batteries when we have far more storage capacity in our EV batteries than any home battery could viably provide seems ridiculous. For the equivalent capacity that our Polestar has in it would cost in access of $200K. One of the major barriers to heading down the V2G path (powering our home from the car) is that our lines company seems to be years away from developing the regulatory measures or physical design parameters for V2G to be possible. Of course we are dealing with a power supply structure that sees distributed generation and EVs as a threat so any advances will be an uphill struggle.

The biggest issue is going to be generation capacity long term, new house builds should require solar panels which would help somewhat, Australia has far more solar panels on their homes than us.
When I was over there, literally alomst every roof had some panels on it, even if it was just 4 panels, they had something.
Better incentives for solar would go a long way here, converting the steel mill to electricity is going to even take up more of our grid demands, so not sure where we will get that extra capacity from, we are already running low.
I know some wont agree, but I really think Nuclear should be heavily explored. Those small modular reactors are very attractive and the reprocessing of the nuclear fuel is something that can be done, but even better is this breeder reactor that Bill Gates is funding, he is really investing alot into Nuclear power and I hope it means we can see some better options on the market that remove the taboos of Nuclear away. Nuclear can be done right, but sadly disasters like Chernobyl and Fukushima tarnish nuclears reputation.

[harm_less]

The rate of change resulting from these disruptive changes in the key sectors of our economy (energy, information, food, transport and materials) is absolutely overwhelming the organisations/businesses who have previously supplied those goods and services.

Here in New Zealand the rate at which EVs and PV have been taken up has left power utilities, government regulators, primary producers, vehicle suppliers and oil companies, among others struggling to keep up. Case in point the government's recent budget announcement on funding 23 rapid charging hubs NZ wide as they have correctly identified that a lack of public EV charging is restricting EV uptake. Installing hubs of the size they are suggesting is more than just a case of choosing a piece of real estate and moving in some charging units as the rate of electricity required to charge multiple EVs at DC rates requires some pretty grunty current. In many cases the local grid just doesn't have the capacity to support such demand.

Here in New Plymouth the local Council has plans to add numerous EVs to their fleet over the coming years but the grid infrastructure to its premises is only capable of supporting a few level 2 (7kW) chargers rather than several level 3 (25kW+ DC) chargers as is required for timely daytime charging of their EVs. That grid shortfall is typical for that area of the New Plymouth CBD which includes where the existing ChargeNet 50kW public charger is sited, which incidentally recently went offline because of supply issues. My sister who nurses in Auckland advises me that a similar situation exists for the EV fleet at the hospital she works at.

Note too the clumsy approach to addressing AI control measures we're seeing lately in NZ, and further afield. That technology is moving hugely faster than TPTB can implement control over it. That situation is a cause for concern especially as we head into an election campaign.

I'm presently planning an increase in our PV capacity which I would like to add battery storage to but the idea of spending ~$20K on batteries when we have far more storage capacity in our EV batteries than any home battery could viably provide seems ridiculous. For the equivalent capacity that our Polestar has in it would cost in access of $200K. One of the major barriers to heading down the V2G path (powering our home from the car) is that our lines company seems to be years away from developing the regulatory measures or physical design parameters for V2G to be possible. Of course we are dealing with a power supply structure that sees distributed generation and EVs as a threat so any advances will be an uphill struggle.

The biggest issue is going to be generation capacity long term, new house builds should require solar panels which would help somewhat, Australia has far more solar panels on their homes than us.
When I was over there, literally alomst every roof had some panels on it, even if it was just 4 panels, they had something.
Better incentives for solar would go a long way here, converting the steel mill to electricity is going to even take up more of our grid demands, so not sure where we will get that extra capacity from, we are already running low.
I know some wont agree, but I really think Nuclear should be heavily explored. Those small modular reactors are very attractive and the reprocessing of the nuclear fuel is something that can be done, but even better is this breeder reactor that Bill Gates is funding, he is really investing alot into Nuclear power and I hope it means we can see some better options on the market that remove the taboos of Nuclear away. Nuclear can be done right, but sadly disasters like Chernobyl and Fukushima tarnish nuclears reputation.

The guy who is currently designing our PV upgrade has spent time in the PV industry overseas including Aussie. According to him Australia has PV on over 30% of their houses due largely to incentivisation in the past and now has a situation that PV installations must have facility for the lines companies to throttle them back, if not disable them at times. This is because on sunny days when homeowners are away at work the amount of power going into the grid from domestic PV generation is actually putting the grid infrastructure at risk so solar input must be limited.

On the nuclear thing I did a sustainable energy paper at Massey a few years back. At that time our tutor, Prof. Ralph Sims, wrote off nuclear for NZ due to its very long planning and construction periods, and once completed the output of even a small scale plant would totally overwhelm our existing generation capacity. The oversupply would be particularly problematic due to NZ having no land borders so exporting excess generation isn't possible. Then of course there's the security concerns in dealing with spend nuclear fuel.

Currently nuclear one of the most expensive generation methods, with solar and wind being the cheapest. IMO we would be far better off to develop sun and wind potential.

[R2x1]

"Currently nuclear one of the most expensive generation methods, with solar and wind being the cheapest. IMO we would be far better off to develop sun and wind potential. "

Good thinking. All they need to do is make a couple of small changes to enable the electric heating loads to be put off from frosty nights to sunny and breezy afternoons and it'll all be sweet as. Sadly, the former DSIR's team tasked with this trifle is still a bit tied up with their search for a cheap alternative to sea water, so please be patient.

[harm_less]

"Currently nuclear one of the most expensive generation methods, with solar and wind being the cheapest. IMO we would be far better off to develop sun and wind potential. "

Good thinking. All they need to do is make a couple of small changes to enable the electric heating loads to be put off from frosty nights to sunny and breezy afternoons and it'll all be sweet as. Sadly, the former DSIR's team tasked with this trifle is still a bit tied up with their search for a cheap alternative to sea water, so please be patient.

So batteries then