National's tax plan

[Lilith7]

There must be problems which they're aware of surely, or they'd tell the world in detail what it is they intend to do. Being reluctant to provide details makes them look inexperienced  or deceitful - or possibly both. 
They're really not doing themselves any favours by not providing more details.





https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/...money.html

"National's tax plan has come under scathing attack from a group of economists who've modelled their foreign buyers' levy and found, at best, they are $450 million a year short of what they need.   

The foreign buyers' tax is a key plank of the National Party’s promise to provide tax cuts. But National is still refusing to accept they have a problem. 

"Oh no our tax plan is rock solid," said leader Christopher Luxon. 

But Luxon’s refusing to release the "rock-solid" modelling behind his assumption National will pull in $740 million a year from taxing overseas buyers of luxury homes. 

"We've looked at our numbers very closely, we’ve had it independently reviewed," he said. 

In the absence of any modelling from National, a group of three economists has done it for them. 

Michael Reddell, a former Reserve Bank analyst and hardly sympathetic to the left, said there's a massive hole.   

"The bottom line was you just get nowhere near their numbers on any plausible assumptions."

Corelogic's Nick Goodall also said it was difficult to see how National's numbers are plausible. 

Along with Sam Warburton, they modelled three scenarios. Remember National needs to raise - on average - $740 million a year.  

The most generous scenario - which assumed a growth in housing stock and sales - found the policy would generate nearly $290 million a year, leaving National about $450 million short. Their most likely scenario was it making $212.7m - that leaves a $527m hole.   

National's based their numbers on 1700 house sales per year. 

The economists' best-case scenario picked it would really be more like 708, 514 of which would be houses priced over $2 million and 194 homes that would otherwise sell for under $2 million but overseas buyers would pay more than market value for.  

National's finance spokesperson Nicola Willis said it was the party's view the economists' modelling is "flawed". 

Asked if he knew his stuff, Reddell said: "Well I spent 30 years at the Reserve Bank, a couple years at Treasury.

So, does Willis know her numbers better than him?  

"I am confident in our numbers, I think the assumptions he has made are flawed," she said. 

Reddell said it appeared National's preferred option was "to bluster and deny and hope the news moves on". 

If National can’t find enough money, it leaves them three options: Borrow more, cancel the tax cuts or find some more public service cuts. 

Asked what she was going to cut, Willis said: "We are confident we are going to deliver our tax plan in the way that we have set out." 

Robertson said the plan "doesn't add up". 






[b]https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2023/09/election-2023-nicola-willis-heckled-by-grant-robertson-gets-groans-from-audience-over-foreign-buyers-tax-claims.html[/b]

On several occasions throughout the night, the Labour finance spokesperson asked his National counterpart where the detail was in her tax policy document.

The crowd at the ASB Great debate in Queenstown also clearly didn't buy some of Willis' claims, with the audience making a large noise of disapproval when she suggested her party's policy wouldn't lead to house price growth in the region.

  

National is proposing a 15 percent tax on the purchase of properties worth more than $2 million by foreign buyers to help pay for several tax cut initiatives, like shifting income tax brackets to account for inflation.

It was put to her by moderator Jack Tame that the average house price in Queenstown is about $1.7 million, so property owners there looking to sell may increase their asking price above $2 million in order to attract foreign buyers, therefore bringing the region's prices up.

"We don't think it will affect them," Willis replied to groans in audience. "We are going to be asking them to pay a 15 percent tax which will deter speculation… the most important thing we can do for housing affordability in Queenstown is get more houses built here."

Treasury advice from 2019 obtained by Newshub shows officials believe foreign activity even in the top-end of the market "displaces New Zealanders from being able to purchase these homes and so places further demand pressures in other segments". 

[Zurdo]

Just borrow more money, we've been doing it for decades, and, well, China are the good guys now...right ?

[Praktica]

Hey - deceitful is National's middle name.

[Lilith7]

Just borrow more money, we've been doing it for decades, and, well, China are the good guys now...right ?

Jeez...I thought it was North Korea - they've got  that lovely young man with the slightly odd haircut....

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Hey - deceitful is National's middle name.

True - but then also true of most politicians.